The word ‘uncertainty’ means different things for all decision makers. It also evokes strong emotions. So how do we make decisions when there is uncertainty?
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In this TEDx invited speaking engagement, Founder Natasha Stavros argues that while uncertainty can feel debilitating, finding a common understanding of the science behind what it means can help us move forward. In fact, we can all understand the science as it follows our intuitive understanding of the world. We deal with uncertainty every day and are still able to make decisions. For example, when you leave to meet with a friend who is chronically late, you quickly weigh the odds and decide when to leave.
In this TEDx talk, Dr. Stavros uses intuitive examples to define statistical uncertainty, confidence, and risk in the context of decision theory. She uses examples both from everyday life and from her personal experience as a climate change scientist.
Dr. Stavros argues that if we can find a common interpretation of ‘uncertainty’, we can converge on some of the most challenging decisions such as the best adaptation strategies to pursue under climate change.